Using Multiple Satellite Models with On-Site Measurements to Estimate the Long-Term Solar Resource
On-site measurements are used with historical satellite models to develop accurate long-term solar resource estimates. However, using a single model as a reference may result in additional uncertainty/financial risk. Individual models may have inconsistent trends, influencing the magnitude of the climate adjustment. Models may also occasionally experience anomalies that correspond to shorter on-site measurement periods. These possibilities can lead to less accurate long-term resource predictions. In this presentation, UL outlines the considerations for selecting a satellite modeled dataset as a long-term reference. For climate-adjustments, the most important quality is not a model’s long-term magnitude, but rather its consistency. Using numerous examples, the presentation demonstrates how correlating on-site data to multiple models mitigates the financial risk of an on-site resource estimate. The results illustrate the importance of relying on more than one reference model for resource estimates to mitigate the risk of increasing trends and step changes in reference datasets.