Global Validations and Methods Manager Natural Power
Presentation Description: Increasingly, energy production estimates are being completed in the time domain, including more complex temporal and spatial models capable of calculating gross energy production at each turbine location over time, with a goal of more accurately modelling turbine output as compared to a bin-wise basis . Many losses factors, by their nature, are best calculated on a time series basis, including turbine performance (i.e. where a combination of TI/shear/wind speed conditions influencing turbine performance all must be considered) or hysteresis losses, where the temporal wind resource characteristics will directly impact cut out/re-cut in occurrence. In addition, many environmental (bird/bat) curtailment schemes require multivariate temporal assessments. To date, energy loss due to turbine or BOP unavailability has traditionally been modeled on an annualized basis.
In this presentation Natural Power demonstrates: (1) A novel approach to modelling project availability in a stochastic time series manner (including probability distributions of downtime events), including, where possible, verification of these modeling assumptions with operating data. (2) Time series approach to integrating all losses in a cascading manner, such that loss interaction is more accurately captured. The latter specifically addressing the advantage of this approach, where we are increasingly seeing projects with multiple more complicated curtailment conditions, including environmental, WSM, and off taker limit curtailment requirements.
Methodology: Standard powerpoint slide presentation