Presentation Description: The injection of a significant amount of offshore wind generation to the electric grid over the next several years has the potential to disrupt the traditional grid, system resource and economic planning procedures used by many utilities due to increased uncertainty over reserve requirements, transmission capacity, and resource variability. To better understand these potential risks, DNV GL has combined its mesoscale modeling capabilities with an innovative stochastic engine model to quantify the frequency and magnitude of impactful events to system planners, including large wind ramps, high wind turbine shutdown, or unique weather events that may cause resource scarcity, such as extended periods of cold temperatures and low wind generation with coincident periods of high system load. Using the stochastic engine we are able to create thousands of years of realistically plausible time series of energy production while maintaining the spatial coherency and inter-site correlations of key variables such as wind and solar production, ambient temperature and system load. This capability allows for a better projection of future variability as it allows us to evaluate the full spectrum of weather conditions that drive power production instead of a simple evaluation of historical behavior. In cooperation with ISONE, DNV GL has modeled the wind generation at all existing onshore wind plants and nearly 12 GW of potential offshore wind in BOEM lease areas south of Nantucket. Analysis of the results indicates that the range of expected generation for each hour of the day is larger for offshore than onshore, indicating that onshore estimates of minimum available wind capacity may not be applicable to offshore generation.