Category: Residential Generation
Over the past ten years Solar Energy has nearly completed the “Innovator’s” stage of a typical “Technology Adoption Life Cycle”. Typically this first stage, the Innovator category covers the first 2.5% of the total possible sales of a product to a consumer market. The technology that made this happen, Photovoltaic “solar cells” have to be congratulated for this success in the solar industry. The precise tracking by the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) provides the data that proves that the dramatic conversion from the “Innovator” step to the “Early Adopter” stage is at the beginnings if not already taking place.
Based on SEIA’s “Solar Industry Research Data” and rounding up to 2 million current installations in the USA, the next “wave” by consumers will add on another 10.8 million installations over the next ten years and another 27.2 million installations in the following 10 years with the “Early Majority” stage of the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.
Typically, the Early Adopter stage brings out competition between technologies. Solar Thermal powered residential power will enter the market and gain market share. Several new Solar Thermal technologies are entering the market with the Thermal Hydraulic Engine being the best alternative. With over 10 million potential solar installations over the next ten years, Solar Thermal will achieve a 3 – 7% market share. That means 300,000 to 700,000 solar installations will be powered by solar thermal technology.
As with any of the changes in stages of the Technology Adoption Live Cycle, advances in product marketing and management need to conform to the personality traits of the new stage. Many companies won’t adjust and lose market share until they conform.
Brian Hageman– Executive Manager, The Net's Edge Limited Company, LLC