Poster Topical Area: Community and Public Health Nutrition
Poster Board Number: 173
Objectives: To estimate the potential effects on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and related healthcare costs of a nationwide ban of industrial trans-fatty acids (TFAs) in Australia.
Methods: Intake of TFA was assessed using the 2011–2012 Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The IHD burden attributable to TFA was calculated by comparing the current level of TFA intake to a counterfactual setting where consumption was lowered to a theoretical minimum distribution of 0.5% energy per day (corresponding to TFA intake only from non-industrial sources, e.g., dairy foods). Markov cohort models were used to estimate the impact on IHD burden in the Australian population and in subgroups based on sex, socioeconomic status defined by Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile, and remoteness. Averted IHD deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and IHD-related healthcare costs saved were estimated for the total Australian population and in each subgroup.
Results: In preliminary analyses, a ban of industrial TFAs would lead to 41,838 (95% CI: 32,738; 50,827) averted IHD deaths, 329,452 HALYs gained (95% CI: 275,189; 380,772) and IHD-related healthcare cost savings of AU$1.21 billion (95% CI: $1.04 billion; $1.45 billion) over the lifetime of the population. Effects were similar by gender, with 50% of averted IHD deaths, 46% of HALY gains, and 42% of healthcare savings accrued to women. The most socioeconomically advantaged quintile had the lowest proportions of averted IHD deaths (16.8%), HALY gains (17.2%), and healthcare cost savings (17.3%) compared to other quintiles. The 30% of Australians living outside major cities would have the largest relative HALY gains (38% of all HALY gains).
Conclusions: A ban of industrial TFAs would lead to tens of thousands averted IHD deaths and over a billion dollars of IHD-related healthcare care savings over the lifetime of the Australian population. Introducing such a policy will likely reduce social-economic and urban-rural inequalities in IHD disease burden.
The George Institute for Global Health and the Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales
Newtown, New South Wales, Australia