Watershed

Oral

398093 - UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN FLOOD WATER HARVESTING

Tuesday, June 5
4:00 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: Greenway IJ

The Arab Potash Company PLC (APC) has been producing potash since 1983 at its Safi site near the Dead Sea in Jordan. Currently, APC requires approximately 13 million cubic meters (MCM) of water per year for its production plants and site facilities and with a planned increase in production, it expects a water demand of 20 MCM per year by 2030. To meet the current and future water demands, a feasibility-level study was conducted for harvesting flood water from two watersheds near the site.

To incorporate the uncertainties in the available volume of floodwater until 2058 (the life of the mine), a new continuous hydrologic model with an hourly time scale was parameterized and developed in GoldSim. An hourly time scale deterministic model was necessary because flood events in this region are short (2 to 4 days) and on average only a few rainfall events occur each year. The model was calibrated and validated against the flows recorded at two flow monitoring sites. Through Monte-Carlo simulations, the hydrologic model was used to predict the uncertainty of available flood water until 2058. The average annual flood water available for harvest was determined to be 2.75 MCM.

Sixteen potential options were investigated. Five options were determined worthy of further development. The remaining five options included different size reservoirs to store flood water. The size of the storage facility for each option was optimized by reckoning the capital cost of each option size, the cost of purchasing water during the life of mining, and the uncertainty in flood water availability. The results showed that an option with a 1.0 MCM storage facility and a capital cost of $13M was the best option.

Omid Mohseni, PhD., PE.

Senior Water Resources Engineer
Barr Engineering Company

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Cory Anderson

Barr Engineering Co.

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Art Kalmes

Barr Engineering Co.

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