Hydro-Climate Symposium

Oral

394618 - EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO): TELECONNECTION AND POSSIBILITIES FOR DROUGHT FORECASTING IN DHAKA

Wednesday, June 6
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Co-Authors: A.T.M. Hasan Zobeyer, Dhaka, Bangladesh – Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology; Nasreen Jahan, Dhaka, Bangladesh – Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

The aim of this research is to find out an effective method for forecasting drought in Dhaka using El Nino-Southern Oscillation index. Long lead drought forecasting method will be beneficial as timely information about the onset, extent, intensity and duration of drought can limit losses to economy and environment. With this view, the strength of teleconnection between drought indices SPI, SPEI and ENSO index was assessed by performing correlation analysis. Here sea surface temperature (SST) represent ENSO index. The correlation analysis shows a strong correlation between average SPI, SPEI values of month October-November-December (OND) and OND SST of NINO 3.4 region for the period 1994-2014. Then discriminant analysis has been performed to evaluate the possibilities of a long lead drought forecast. From discriminant analysis it has found that droughts are more likely associated with El Nino which is the warm episode of ENSO whereas during La Nina probability of occurrence of wet event increases. During a warm event, possibility of drought is 67% which decreases to 0% during a cold event. A synoptic parameter “Forecasting Index” has also been used to assess the forecast skill of this approach and the respective Forecast Indices (FI) were found appreciable (Greater than 0.5). This assures that the discriminant prediction approach, proposed in this research can be used as an effective method for predicting drought.

Sabiha Tabassum, BSc

Student
Bangladesh Univ. of Engineering & Technology BUET

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394618 - EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO): TELECONNECTION AND POSSIBILITIES FOR DROUGHT FORECASTING IN DHAKA



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