Planning & Management

Oral

398413 - Evaluating the Uncertainty in Paleo Flood Perception Thresholds and Age Using Bulletin 17C

Tuesday, June 5
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Greenway GH

The expected moments algorithm used for flow frequency analysis and codified in Bulletin 17C significantly improves the treatment of historic and paleo flood information over its predecessor, Bulletin 17B. Inclusion of paleo flood information generally involves three input parameters: 1) the magnitude of one or more discrete paleo flood events, 2) a perception threshold defining a flood magnitude that has not been exceeded during the paleo flood period, and 3) an age defining the number of years in the paleo flood period. Uncertainty in the magnitude of discrete paleo flood events can be explicitly input and evaluated using off the shelf EMA software such as HEC-SSP and PeakFQ. Uncertainty in the input values for perception threshold and age cannot be directly evaluated within these software packages. In certain situations, such as when the age covers a relatively large number of years, these two parameters can be the most uncertain inputs to the flow frequency analysis. A simple and straight forward analysis using monte-carlo simulation techniques is proposed to quantify this source of uncertainty in the flow frequency estimate. A case study for Cherry Creek Dam is presented to demonstrate the approach.

David A. Margo, P.E.

Lead Civil Engineer
USACE - Risk Management Center

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398413 - Evaluating the Uncertainty in Paleo Flood Perception Thresholds and Age Using Bulletin 17C



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