398082 - Ensemble Forecasting with the NOAA/NWS National Water Model

Thursday, June 7
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Greenway IJ

The NOAA/NWS National Water Model is an operational hydrologic forecasting model that operates on the scale of the 2.7 million river segments of the National Hydrography Dataset. With one hour updates to model state variables, the National Water Model provides 18 hour forecasts every hour, 10 day forecasts every six hours and 30 day forecasts every day. Although the model provides deterministic forecasts of streamflow for 18 hour and 10 day lead times, in addition to other hydrologic phenomena, one can use previous streamflow forecasts to build time-lagged ensembles and characterize uncertainty by evaluating how well previous forecasts align with each other. This can be studied across spatial scales to assess variability within small and large watersheds. As forecasting floods is one of many uses of the National Water Model, this talk will evaluate the use of time-lagged ensembles for flood prediction. As this effort includes an estimate of bankfull conditions, methods for estimating hydraulic geometries will be presented and discussed. In order to set the stage, a brief description of the model will be provided along with future enhancements and capabilities.

Fernando R. Salas

Associate Scientist
UCAR / NWS Office of Water Prediction

Fernando Salas specializes in the application of geographic information systems to surface water hydrology and hydrologic modeling. He is currently an associate scientist with UCAR at the NOAA/NWS National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, AL and works within the Analysis and Prediction and Geo-intelligence division. Fernando has been involved in the implementation of the WRF-Hydro framework at the scale of the 2.7 million NHDPlus river reaches across the United States and recently coordinated the National Flood Interoperability Experiment-Summer Institute to help evolve the hydrologic program and forecasting capability within the NWS. Fernando received his PhD from the Environmental and Water Resources Engineering program at the University of Texas at Austin where he received his MSE in 2010. Since 2010, Mr. Salas has been an active member of the Greater Austin chapter of Engineers Without Borders and served as Director of Projects while working on projects in Guatemala, Panama and Peru. Before moving to Texas, Mr. Salas received his BS in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Cornell University in 2008.


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398082 - Ensemble Forecasting with the NOAA/NWS National Water Model

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