Stormwater Symposium

Oral

397525 - The Role of Forecast Uncertainty in Adaptively Controlled Stormwater Management

Monday, June 4
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Greenway AB
Co-Authors: Conor Lewellyn, Boston, MA – Opti; Micah Strauss, Boston, MA – Opti

Recent developments in stormwater management have enabled the use of continuous monitoring and adaptive control (CMAC) to create smarter stormwater networks. CMAC allows for outflows from stormwater infrastructure to be modulated in real-time, utilizing remote sensing and weather forecasts to compute control decisions. By integrating with weather forecasts, stormwater infrastructure can prepare for impending storms by ensuring sufficient storage to capture runoff. With the inherent uncertainty associated with weather forecasts, however, forecast-based controls stand as a natural source of variability for the performance of these systems.

A modeling approach was taken to assess how forecast uncertainty propagates into the performance of controlled stormwater infrastructure. Two control scenarios were considered: a CMAC system that aims to provide storage and avoid discharge in wet weather (typical of a dry pond or underground detention facility) and a system configured to lengthen the retention time while maintaining a permanent pool (typical of a wet pond). Performance of the CMAC scenarios with both National Weather Service forecasts and artificial, perfect forecasts as model inputs were compared. A sensitivity analysis was also performed on the Probability of Precipitation (POP) threshold used to accept forecasted rainfall as an actionable event for control, this analysis seeking to minimize the uncertainty associated with weather forecasts in CMAC applications.

Additionally, several CMAC installations were analyzed to understand how disparities between forecasted and actual rainfall events impacted site performance. This research aims to evaluate the efficacy of weather forecasts in stormwater control decisions.

Seth Petersen Bryant

Operations Engineer
Opti

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