Planning & Management

Oral

397297 - INTEGRATING MULTI-TIME SCALE FORECASTS TO IMPROVE FARMERS’ DECISION MAKING

Wednesday, June 6
8:30 AM - 10:00 AM
Location: Greenway GH
Co-Authors: Mashor Housh, Haifa, Israel – University of Haifa; Ximing Cai, Urbana, IL – University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Agricultural decision making, particularly in irrigated systems, is highly influenced by the uncertainties imposed by climate variability. As such, farmers often follow highly conservative (thus inefficient) strategies to cope with the uncertainties and to mitigate the impacts of climate extremes, such as droughts. However, availability of improved weather and climate forecasts at different time scales provide farmers with an opportunity to make more efficient decisions. For example, before the crop season, seasonal forecasts can be used to decide crop type, crop pattern, total amount of water needed for irrigation and crop insurance policies. On the other hand, during the crop season, short-term weather forecasts can be used for irrigation scheduling.
In this study we propose a decision-making framework to integrate multi-time scale forecasts while considering the different levels of uncertainty involved in these forecasts. The proposed framework is based on multi-stage stochastic programming which utilizes both seasonal forecasts and weather forecasts for pre-season and during-season decision making. Consequently, it is possible to benefit from different types of information with different levels of uncertainties and explore the tradeoff between forecast horizon and forecast accuracy.

Majid Shafiee-Jood

PhD Candidate
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Majid Shafiee-Jood is a Ph.D. candidate in the department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at University of Illinois. He holds B.Sc. degree in Civil Engineering and M.Sc. degree in Water Resources Engineering both from Sharif University of Technology in Iran. His core research interests include integrated water resources planning and management. Specifically, his research focuses on integrating hydroclimatic information in agricultural and water resources decision making. Shafiee-Jood is a former President of the International Water Resources Association (IWRA) student chapter at the University of Illinois and one of the founders and organizers of Illinois Water Day.

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