Planning & Management
396049 - Reservoir Regulations of the Indus River Basin under Different Flow Conditions
Wednesday, June 6
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Northstar B
Waqas Ahmed, Jamshoro, Pakistan – Mehran University of Engineering and Technology; Steve Burian, Utah, USA – University of Utah; Ajay Kalra, Southern Illinoise, USA – Southern Illinois University; Sajjad Ahmad, Nevada, USA – University of Nevada, Las Vegas
The study developed a system dynamics model to explore several water supply and demand management scenarios in the major river systems and tributaries of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in Pakistan. The performance of the two major existing reservoirs i.e., Tarbela and Mangla, located on the Indus and Jhelum Rivers, respectively, were tested under different inflow and outflow conditions. Empirical relationships between upstream and downstream locations of each of the existing reservoir and barrage were developed and were validated against historical flow data. Inflows to the reservoirs were varied across a wide range i.e., from low flow to high flow, under the influence of climate change and the outflow regulations were modified accordingly to meet the water demand for agriculture and the increasing population. The environmental flows in terms of the net contribution to the Arabian Sea, which is the most downstream location of the IRB, were also calculated under each of the scenarios. The reservoir regulation rules were also modified to explore the ability to meet the downstream demands and to avoid flooding in the lower basins. Besides changing the storage capacity of the existing reservoirs, additional reservoirs were added to evaluate the overall improvement of the ability to meet future demands and reduce flooding in the river basin. The results suggest that the existing conditions can be improved by proper regulations of the reservoirs under different scenarios. However, with the fluctuation in discharge through the years and across the seasons, infrastructural development i.e., construction of additional reservoirs or structural modifications of the existing ones, will be required to tackle future demand and supply conditions.