Hydro-Climate Symposium

Oral

395433 - Linear regression analysis and statistical models using oceanic and atmospheric variables for streamflow forecasting in Chixoy river, Guatemala

Wednesday, June 6
8:30 AM - 10:00 AM
Location: Lake Superior B
Co-Authors: Carlo Salvinelli, UCB 428, Boulder, CO 80309 – University of Colorado Boulder

The objective of this study is to forecast streamflows in the Chixoy river basin, Guatemala. The basin covers an area of about 5,000 km2, it is located upstream of the Usumacinta river which drains into the Mexican Gulf, and it was selected as case study because it supplies the main hydropower plant of the country. Based on teleconnection principles and linear multiple regression analysis, statistical models were performed. The independent variables were oceanic and atmospheric indices used for monitoring El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) by the National Weather Service/Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These variables include Sea Level Pressures (SLP), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), and Trade Winds (TW) in different regions of the Tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as autocorrelation of the river flows. The dependent variable was the seasonal (three-monthly average) river flow into the hydropower reservoir Chixoy for the period 1980-2009, which was operated by the Guatemalan National Electrification Institute (INDE in Spanish). The models were assessed through multiple step-wise regression analysis and cross correlations lagged from 1 to 12 months. To appraise the forecast potential of the model, cross validation was performed where the correlation coefficient, the difference between the forecast and the observed river flow, and the standard error were evaluated. In addition, the Durbin-Watson test was applied to verify that there was no autocorrelation on residuals. Six models were developed for the trimesters September-October-November (r2=0.803); October-November-December (r2=0.748); November-December-January (r2=0.818); December-January-February (r2=0.800); January-February-March (r2=0.820); February-March-April (r2=0.855).

Jonas Dobias, MSc.

Water Expert Adviser
Ministry of Energy and Mines of Guatemala

Since 2009 I have been working in the Guatemalan electric energy sector as a water and energy adviser/consultor. Between 2009 and 2015 as hydrologist consultant for the Guatemalana Nacional Electric Energy Commission (CNEE in Spanish) wher I design statistcal models to forecast river flow and moitoring the hydropower production as well as supervising the implementation of the Dam Safety Standards for the national Hydropowers. In 2016 trainning the professional of the Ministry of Energy and Mines in topics, related to watershed management in hydorpower facilities, the Guatemalana Water sector and environmental aspects in hydropower developmnet. I have also work as independent consultant for the Guatemalana Renewal Energy Genertor Asossiation (AGER in Spanish) and for the privata sector doing hydrological analysis in some river basin in the country. I hold also seven years of experience as engineer in supervision, construction and management of infrastructure projects in Guatemala.

My academic background includes a Bachelor Sciences in Civil Engineering in the San Carlos University from Guatemala and a Master of Sciencies degree in Lund University from Sweden. Other posgraduate courses in GIS and Hydrological Modeling from the International Water Institute in Delf, The Netherlands and; Drinking Water Infraestructure in the Korean Water Academy, South Korea. international training in Hydropower Development and Use with Vatenfall Power Consultant from Sweden and a traineeship at the European Commission, Water and Energy Facility Unit, in Brussels, Belgium.

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395433 - Linear regression analysis and statistical models using oceanic and atmospheric variables for streamflow forecasting in Chixoy river, Guatemala



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