Watershed

Oral

395407 - LP3 Flood Frequency Analysis including Climate Change

Wednesday, June 6
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Greenway IJ
Co-Authors: Xin Yu, Axtria, Inc. – Berkeley Heights, NJ

Hydrologists are concerned about possible climate change and trends in flood-flow frequency relationships. A proposal is to estimate the trends in the mean (sometimes also the variance) of floods over the period of record and employ the estimated trends to project the flood-risk distribution’s parameters into the future. How large do trends need to be for that to be attractive? This paper reports a Monte Carlo study with the log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution that considers several variations of such a dynamic flood frequency analysis and the estimation of parameters.
With a sample size of 40 and small trends (within ±0.25% per year), the stationarity moment estimator is about the best among realistic moment methods across all cases considered regardless of the skewness coefficient; for larger trends one should incorporate the trend in the log-mean of the LP3 distribution.; only for ±1% per year or more-extreme-trends in both the mean and variance was it advantageous to estimate the trends in both the log-mean and log-variance of the annual maximum series. The results show that the LP3 coefficient of skewness (which was assumed to be a constant and was estimated) has considerable effects on the efficiency of quantile and exceedance probability estimators in a dynamic world.

Jery R. Stedinger


Cornell Univ

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