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Oral

395209 - A Framework for Visualization of Uncertainty in the Component Parts of Flood Forecasts: Application to the Ohio River Basin

Thursday, June 7
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Greenway IJ
Co-Authors: Patrick Ray, Cincinnati, Ohio – University of Cincinnati

The Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC) uses two ensemble modeling techniques, the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS) and the Meteorological Ensemble Forecasting System (MMEFS), that operate on the model framework scale accounting for error in the whole simulation. Sources of uncertainty within the model framework such as routing parameters or initial soil moisture states are not regularly reviewed or quantified by forecasters. This study: 1) applies statistical techniques to evaluate the uncertainty of each of the component parts of the OHRFC model framework, and then 2) develops visualization of multi-dimensional datasets to help forecasters explain and reduce uncertainty. This study presents progress achieved through a novel collaborative partnership between a National Weather Center and a university community. OHRFC has benefitted through improved understanding of the sources of model uncertainty, leading to improved understanding of modeling spread from new ensemble techniques like MMEFS and HEFS, and improved forecasts of benefit to general public. OHRFC participates directly, selecting a forecast group as a case study application, applying a perturbation scheme to forcings, initial conditions, and model parameters, conducting model simulations for each perturbation, and computing errors against observations from each simulation. OHRFC has co-developed all statistical tools and identified data visualizations of greatest relevance to OHRFC operations with lasting enhanced capacity and discipline expertise. This study presents findings of general interest to flood forecasters, and reports on strategies for collaborative research found to be most productive.

Saiful Haque Rahat


University of Cincinnati

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395209 - A Framework for Visualization of Uncertainty in the Component Parts of Flood Forecasts: Application to the Ohio River Basin



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