Watershed

Oral

395172 - The potential impact of non-stationary climate conditions on the NOAA Atlas 14 estimates

Wednesday, June 6
8:30 AM - 10:00 AM
Location: Greenway IJ
Co-Authors: Orlan Wilhite, Silver Spring – UCAR

The Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center (HDSC) of the NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for the development, production and publication of precipitation frequency estimates for the United States and affiliated territories. These estimates are published as Volumes of the NOAA Atlas 14: Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States. Thus far, HDSC has developed 10 Volumes of the NOAA Atlas 14 and is currently working on Volume 11. The current approach in NOAA Atlas 14 assumes a stationary climate over the period of observation, and as such, does not characterize uncertainty in the presence of non-stationary climate conditions.

As part of on-going efforts to understand the potential impact of non-stationary climate conditions on the NOAA Atlas 14, HDSC has partnered with academia to investigate and develop an alternative frequency analysis method. The alternative method accounts for climate non-stationarity by accounting for the time dependence of parameters in the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we will discuss this alternative model and compare various types of non-stationary models against the current NOAA Atlas 14 stationary model for a selected area. Furthermore, we will discuss other related findings and present a general outline of our larger effort to develop a methodology that would produce accurate and reliable estimates, reflecting our best understanding of current and future potential risk from extreme precipitation.

Sandra B. Pavlovic

Associate Scientist
UCAR

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Sanja Perica

HDSC Director
NOAA

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Michael Stlaurent

Associate Scientist
UCAR

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Carl Trypaluk

Associate Scientist
UCAR

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Dale Unruh

Associate Scientist
UCAR

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