Hydraulics & Waterways

Oral

395072 - Probabilistic Shoreline Evolution Modeling in Response to Sea Level Changes

Thursday, June 7
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Regency Room
Co-Authors: Sung-Chan Kim, Vicksburg, MS, USA – USACE's ERDC-CHL; Ashley E. Frey, Vicksburg, MS, USA – USACE's ERDC-CHL

This study aims to predict probabilistic shoreline evolution in response to sea level changes by using Monte Carlo simulation approach. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade, is used to simulate longshore sediment transport and long-term shoreline changes induced by random offshore waves. To determine landward sediment transport and shoreline responses to sea level changes, a modified Bruun rule is implemented into the GenCade model. A probability density function is used to capture stochastic features of wave heights under both fair weather and extreme weather conditions. It produces time series of wave heights including small and extreme waves based on their probabilities (or frequencies of appearance). Probabilities of annual maximum shoreline changes in response to sea level change rates are predicted by means of maximum likelihood estimation. This generates uncertainties in prediction of annual maximum shoreline erosion in different return periods (years). This probabilistic shoreline evolution model is capable of assessing reliability and uncertainty of shoreline changes by giving sea level rise rates in natural coasts.

Yan Ding, PhD

Research Civil Engineer
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

Yan Ding is currently working in the Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Engineer
Research & Development Center of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA.
He worked as a Research Associate Professor in the
National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering
(NCCHE) at the University of Mississippi, Oxford, Mississippi,
USA. He has a Ph.D. from Tsinghua University, Beijing,
China. His expertise lies on hydraulics and river dynamics, sediment
transport, optimal control of flow and sediment transport,
numerical modelling, and coastal engineering.

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