Hydro-Climate Symposium

Oral

394873 - A novel scale-invariance generalized extreme value model based on probability weighted moments (GEV/PWM) for estimating extreme design rainfalls in the context of climate change

Tuesday, June 5
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Co-Authors: Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, Montreal, QC, Canada – McGill University

The estimation of extreme design rainfalls in the context of possible climate change impacts (CCIs) has become essential in current engineering practices due to recent recognition of climate variability. This estimation requires hence a new rainfall modelling approach that could establish an accurate linkage between climate projections from global or regional climate models and observed extreme rainfall processes at a local site. Furthermore, outputs from these climate models are mostly available at the daily timestep because of current limitations on detailed physical modelling and computational capability. Hence, rainfall data of high temporal resolutions are often limited or unavailable at the location of interest while those of daily scale are widely available. Recently, statistical models based on the scale-invariance (or scaling) concept has increasingly become a new modeling tool since these scaling models could be used to derive short-duration extreme rainfalls based on those of longer durations. Therefore, the main objective of the present study is to propose a novel scaling GEV/PWM model for modeling extreme rainfall process over a wide range of time scales (e.g., several minutes to one day). The feasibility and accuracy of the GEV/PWM model was assessed and compared with the three existing popular models using IDF data from a network of 21 raingages located in Ontario, Canada. Results based on different statistical criteria have indicated the superior performance of the proposed GEV/PWM as compared to these existing models. The proposed model was used for constructing IDF relations for Ontario using climate projections from different climate models.

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394873 - A novel scale-invariance generalized extreme value model based on probability weighted moments (GEV/PWM) for estimating extreme design rainfalls in the context of climate change



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