Hydro-Climate Symposium

Oral

394856 - Assessment of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations using downscaled CMIP5 climate projections

Tuesday, June 5
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Co-Authors: Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, Montreal, QC, Canada – McGill University; Hoang-Lam Nguyen, Montreal, QC, Canada – McGill University

In recent years, climate change has been recognized as having a profound impact on extreme hydrologic processes. Consequently, there is an urgent need to assess this climate change impact on the estimation of extreme rainfalls for the design of various hydraulic structures. These design rainfalls are commonly estimated using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations available at a given site of interest. Hence, it is essential to be able to establish the linkages between the climate projections given by the Global Climate Models (GCMs) and these IDF relations for the climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls. However, GCM climate projections at the large global scale are not adequate for assessing the climate change impacts on extreme rainfall processes at a regional or local scale. Therefore, in the present study a statistical downscaling (SD) approach was proposed for establishing the linkages between GCM outputs and the extreme rainfalls at a given local site. The feasibility and accuracy of this SD method was evaluated based on the climate simulation outputs from 21 GCMs that have been downscaled by NASA to a regional 25-km scale for two different RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and the observed extreme rainfall data available form a network of seven raingages located in Ontario (Canada). Results of this evaluation have indicated that it is feasible to use the proposed SD approach for describing accurately the relations between climate projections provided by GCMs under different climate change scenarios and daily and sub-daily annual maximum rainfalls at a given site.

Send Email for Truong-Huy Nguyen


Assets

394856 - Assessment of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations using downscaled CMIP5 climate projections



Attendees who have favorited this

Please enter your access key

The asset you are trying to access is locked. Please enter your access key to unlock.

Send Email for Assessment of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations using downscaled CMIP5 climate projections