Standards

Oral

394800 - Assessment of HAILCAST Performance in Western North Dakota

Tuesday, June 5
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Skyway Room
Co-Authors: Gretchen Mullendore, Grand Forks, North Dakota – University of North Dakota; Mariusz Starzec, Grand Forks, North Dakota – University of North Dakota

The North Dakota Cloud Modification Project (NDCMP) uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with HAILCAST to help generate daily summer forecasts. HAILCAST is a one-dimensional hail growth model included in the Air Force Weather Agency’s Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Suite. HAILCAST inserts five embryos at any domain location which has a 10 ms-1 updraft for over 15 minutes and allows the embryos to propagate, experience wet and dry growth, melting, breakup, and fallout. The mean and standard deviation of the maximum diameter of the embryos between output times is calculated. An evaluation of HAILCAST's ability to correctly predict the occurrence of hail and an identification of any biases will help NDCMP be able to more confidently plan seeding operations in anticipation of hail events.
To evaluate HAILCAST performance, model data (1 June 2015 – 31 August 2015) is compared to corresponding hourly Level-3 Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm (HCA) data derived from Bismarck, ND radar observations. A binary contingency table is established to determine if a hit, miss, false alarm, or correct negative took place. Results show a strong bias towards forecast misses, which may have several causes.

Shawn Wagner

Graduate Student
University of North Dakota

Presentation(s):

Send Email for Shawn Wagner


Assets

394800 - Assessment of HAILCAST Performance in Western North Dakota



Attendees who have favorited this

Please enter your access key

The asset you are trying to access is locked. Please enter your access key to unlock.

Send Email for Assessment of HAILCAST Performance in Western North Dakota