Watershed

Oral

394795 - Analysis of the effect of non stationary extreme rainfall on shallow landslide probabilities

Wednesday, June 6
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Greenway IJ
Co-Authors: David Peres, Catania,Italy – University of Catania

Shallow landslides are hydrology-controlled phenomena that cause catastrophic damages and kill thousands of people every year all over the world. Increase of soil water pressure due to extreme rainfall reduce the shear stress of the soil mantle, favoring the instability of hillslopes, thus initiating mudslides or debris flows. Landslides are a nonstationary phenomenon, due to continuous changes in morphological and geotechnical factors affecting slope stability, as well as to modified rainfall temporal patterns.

In the paper, an analysis of how the presence of trends in extreme rainfall affects the probabilities and return periods of landslide triggering is presented. To this end, an analytical solution to a simplified version of Richards equation, derived by Iverson (2000), is used to relate the maximum pressure head (which affects shear stress in the mantle) to rainfall duration and intensity. Then, non stationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are applied to model non stationarities in extreme precipitation, and a semi-analitical expression is derived relating probabilities and return periods of landslide triggering to the non stationary IDF curves. Throughout the analysis, an effort is made to keep the solution on an analytical ground.
The developed methodology is applied to a sample hillslope with characteristics of the Peloritani mountains in Sicily, an area highly prone to shallow landslides.

Antonino Cancelliere


University of Catania

Antonino Cancelliere, MS, PhD, is Associate Professor of Hydraulic, Maritime Structures and Hydrology at Catania University since 2006, where he teaches Hydrology. In 2013 has obtained the Italian National Habilitation for Full Professor. From 1999 to 2006 he has been Researcher in the same scientific sector. He earned an M.S. in Civil Engineering at Colorado State University with a grant from Fulbright program and and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering at the same University. His main research areas include stochastic modelling of droughts, water supply systems management, analysis and mitigation of shallow landslides. He has been the coordinatorof national and international projects on the above subjects and has organized several international meetings.

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