Planning & Management

Oral

394775 - Modeling the WPE nexus using a system dynamics approach

Thursday, June 7
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Greenway GH
Co-Authors: Pan Liu, Wuhan – Wuhan University; Jingwen Zhang, Wuhan – Wuhan University; Zejun Li, Wuhan – Wuhan University

The Hehuang Region is part of the Yellow River Basin located in the Qinghai Province, China, and composed of the main stream of the Yellow River as well as its branch Huangshui River. The water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) systems in the Hehuang Region are increasingly interacting with each other, and interconnected as a WPE nexus. This paper aims to model the WPE nexus in the Hehuang Region by using the system dynamics approach. The variations of storage, water supply, power generation, population, biomass, and environmental awareness are formulated by six nonlinear ordinary differential equations that dominate the coevolution process. The WPE nexus is completed by incorporating the constitutive relations that are obtained from observed data. The model is validated by matching the simulated trajectories with the factual ones. Results show that the system dynamics approach is competent in modeling the WPE nexus of the Hehuang Region. Four cyclic stages can be identified as exploitation, deterioration, depression and recovery stages, and the coevolution terminates with a stationary cycling after thousands of years. The dynamics of state variables are explicitly interpreted to show how different driving variables affect the variations of system states. The observations obtained by modeling the nexus are insightful, improving the understanding of interactions across coupled systems.

Maoyuan Feng, PhD candidate

PhD candidate
Wuhan University

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