394758 - Impacts of Future Climate Projections on the Water Balance of the Gediz Basin in Turkey
Tuesday, June 5
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
M. Levent Kavvas, Davis, CA – University of California, Davis
Located along the western coast of Turkey, the Gediz Basin counts on agriculture as its most important economic activity. Over the last few decades, the basin has been facing water-related problems, such as water scarcity and competing use of water. However, an investigation of possible future water demands and droughts is expected to be helpful for water managers dealing with the future water planning and management of the region. As such, this study aims at evaluating the future water balances occurring in the major reservoir of the basin during the 21st century. For this purpose, four future water supply projections are generated using a hydro-climate modeling framework. This framework includes the coupling of a regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and a fully physically-based hydrologic model, the Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) Model, under two IPCC representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of two CMIP5 global climate models, HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M. A dynamic water balance model is, then, developed to carry out reservoir simulations and is used to operate the reservoir with the projected future flowrates in order to identify water deficits or surpluses under the projected irrigation water demands for the years between 2017 and 2100. Drought analyses are also conducted for each water balance case obtained from the dynamic water balance model.