Hydro-Climate Symposium

Oral

394288 - A global study on attribution of extreme climatic events.

Tuesday, June 5
4:00 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Co-Authors: Ashok Mishra, Clemson University – University

Numerous studies suggested that anthropogenic factors play an important role in triggering climate extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, etc. Such extreme events are fundamentally the causal effect of abnormal (high/ low) precipitation and temperature. We will use frequentist approach to find the event attribution for such climate extremes based on these fundamental variables across the globe. More precisely, this study will focus on the anthropogenic influence on extreme events using observations and model-simulated historical data from General Circulation Model (GCM) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5). Since pre-industrial era represents zero emission scenario, we hereby propose to estimate likelihood and risk of such extreme events (attributed to greenhouse gas emission) with respect to the pre-industrial period. We will further estimate the future projections of such extreme event attribution using the business as usual Representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) based on CMIP5-GCMs for the early, mid and end of 21st century.

Sourav Mukherjee

Clemson University

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