394091 - Reconstruction of a Mesoscale Convective System in the Midwestern United States Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in the Simulation Mode
Tuesday, June 5
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Alain Dib, PhD
Hydrologic Research Laboratory, University of California Davis
Kei Ishida, Kumamoto, Japan – Kumamoto University; M. Levent Kavvas, Davis, California – University of California, Davis
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a complex of cumulonimbus clouds that act as a single organized system, thus producing an extensive and contiguous precipitation region. With a length scale of around 100 km and a time scale of several hours, these systems have been considered as the largest of the convective storms, affecting both the tropics and warmer midlatitudes. In the central United States, MCSs have accounted for a large portion of rainfall for agriculture, but they have also been a major cause of flooding and devastation due to the severe weather which accompanies them. As such, it becomes important to understand the evolution of these systems and to enhance our modeling of such storms in an attempt to predict them in the future. Therefore, this study focuses on modeling MCSs by reconstructing a historical MCS over the Midwestern United States through the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model is simulated using many combinations of the different model parameterization schemes, after which the simulation results are compared to the observation. The model’s performance is then evaluated through the use of a few statistical tests, and the best simulation is chosen based on the statistical tests as well as the location, intensity, and texture of the simulated storm. From this exercise, we find that the WRF model is capable of reproducing the MCS very well over the Midwestern United States, under the appropriate model parameterization scheme.