393280 - Robust management of multipurpose reservoir under uncertainty
Monday, June 4
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Taher Kahil, Lanxenburg, Austria – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Tatiana Ermolieva, Laxenburg, Austria – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Yuri Ermoliev, Laxenburg, Austria – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Samuel Sandoval-Solis, Davis, California – University of California, Davis
Water supply for human and environmental objectives has been at odds under current water management strategies; this research investigates ways to maximize regional benefits under uncertain reservoir inflows while meeting human and environmental water demands. The motivation for this study was to find robust reservoir operation policies that would improve regional water management without affecting regional benefits and by considering unknown inflows into the system. We formulated a novel two stages stochastic optimization model that maximizes regional economic benefits as a function of reservoir deliveries to water users. Such formulation integrates stochastic inflows into a water allocation system that includes different users and physical and institutional constraints. The model derives robust reservoir operation rules that perform well under a wide range of uncertain conditions. We applied the modeling framework to the case of the Big Bend Reach of the Rio Grande/Bravo, a transboundary river basin of high importance for the United States and Mexico. Results suggest that the operation policy of the reservoir can be enhanced in such a way that higher regional benefits can be achieved, even while increasing environmental water allocation.