International Issues

Oral

392714 - Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model: A case study for Africa

Monday, June 4
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM
Location: Lake Superior B
Co-Authors: Paul Block – University of Wisconsin-Madison

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. Here, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators for African regions. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems (e.g., Africa).

Donghoon Lee

PhD Candidate
University of Wisconsin-Madison

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