Stormwater Symposium

Oral

384883 - Defining real-time flood alerts with multicriteria analysis

Monday, June 4
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
Location: Greenway AB
Co-Authors: Flavio Conde, Sao Paulo – FCTH; Sara Pion, São Paulo – FCTH; Sandra Uemura, São Paulo – FCTH

User reliance in flood forecasting is based on the accuracy of model outputs that can generate correct alerts. There are problems related to model imprecisions on forecasted rainfall and mathematical models. If events are observed but not forecasted or forecasted but not observed, the alert is considered a miss. In many cases citizens are not well informed about how flood forecasting works and the imprecisions that may occur. So once an error occurs, citizen reliance may be reduced for subsequent events. To avoid this reliance problem, this study objective is to develop a methodology to create specific flood maps that unite flood risk and intensity, with location site characteristics. The main objective of this article is to explain how a multi criteria analysis can help reduce misses, and provide specific real time flood alerts that prevent dispersing wrong information to a large number of citizens.
The case study is held on São Paulo’s highly urbanized basin named Jaguaré, chosen because of its diverse floodplain occupation.
Real time flood forecast alerts relies on creating thresholds that represent the situation about to happen. They will be described thru flood maps that unite the main parameters on urban events. The study methodology is based on using depth, velocity, flood probability and edification type/vulnerability as decision parameters to draw precise alert boundaries that are deployed only when necessary.
Deploying flood alerts is a very responsible task and by doing this judicious analysis, it’s possible to clarify and reduce misses, building up citizens reliance.

Andre Sandor Kajdacsy Balla Sosnoski, MSc

Engineer
FCTH

Joined Sao Paulo´s Alert System in 2013 following his work in the urban drainage and modeling department at Hydraulics Technological Center Foundation. He obtained his MSc in Water Management at Politecnico de Torino, Italy and in Hydraulics at the University of São Paulo. He holds a diploma in Civil Engineering at the University of São Paulo. After his MSc he started working in São Paulo´s storm water management master plan, co-developing between other activities the city Drainage Manual. He is recently developing a real time flood alert system based on radar rainfall and complez structures.

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Mario T. L Barros, Professor

Full Professor
University of Sao Paulo

Full Professor at the University of Sao Paulo Engineering School, Depto. of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering. Areas: Water Rersources Management, System Analyisis Applied to Water Resources, Urban Water, Urban Drainage, Flood Warning Systems, Forecast Models, Stochastic Hydrology, Hydrothermal System Operation and Optimization Models. Present: Head of Hydrological Engineering Center Foundation (FCTH).

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