Category: Student Competition

394421 - Modelling impacts of future climate on physical susceptibility to erosion: A geospatial approach applied for the coastal area of Bangladesh

Wednesday, Jun 6
8:30 AM – 5:30 PM

This research is an endeavour to generate foresight physical susceptibility to erosion under SRES A1B business-as-usual scenario of future climate for the entire coastal area of Bangladesh. This study employed Geographical Information System (GIS) based spatial raster model namely, Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) by employing future projections of four climate-induced drivers such as rainfall, wind speed, mean sea level and water discharge along with five underlying physical elements. The outputs are justified through integrating experts’ opinions by developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs). This study identified a total 276.33 km² of land as high and very high susceptible to erosion for overall baseline condition (2015) that would be increased to 453.81 km², 648.63 km² and 1019.13 km² by 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively. The amount of land for very low susceptibility would be reduced substantially for different time-slices that would turn more lands into high susceptibility in near and far future. This study also addressed seasonal variations of future climate in the assessment whereas, monsoon (June to September) represents very high susceptibility and winter (December to February) characterises very low susceptible to erosion for all of the three time-slices. The increasing scenario of high susceptibility to erosion might be a matter of concern for a densely populated coastal area like Bangladesh. This research might be seminal for coastal managers, policy makers and researchers in managing future coastal lands in the area studied.

Co-Authors: Dr. Frances Drake, United Kingdom – University of Leeds; Dr. Rizwan Nawaz, United Kingdom – University of Leeds; Dr. Clare Woulds, United Kingdom – University of Leeds

Asib Ahmed

PhD Student
University of Leeds, United Kingdom
Leeds, England, United Kingdom

PhD student
University of Leeds
United Kingdom

Field of interests:
Coastal Disasters, Climate Change and Environment, Hazard, Risk and Community Resilience, Geographical Information System (GIS), Application of Remote Sensing (RS), Geoinformatics in Disaster Management, Water Resource Management.

Article: 12
Book: 01

Software Skills & Competencies
 GIS (Geographic Information System)Software: Arc GIS 9.2, Arc GIS 10, Arc info, Arc view
 Remote Sensing Software: ERDAS IMAGINE
 Surface Generation Software: LASEdit, Cadcorp SIS, 3D Home
 Database: MS Access. SPSS 12.0

 Country President (from 2011 to present): All India Foundation for Peace and Disaster Management (AIFPDM), New Delhi, India.
 Country President (from 2012 to present): Himalayan Alliances for Climate Change (HIMCCA), Kathmandu, Nepal.
 Life Member: Bangladesh National Geographical Association (BNGA), Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
 Life Member: Bangladesh Geographical Society (BGS), University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
 Moderator (from January 2013 to present): Environment Club, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.