Category: Student Competition

394450 - HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF UPSTREAM TARBELA BASIN IN PAKISTAN

Wednesday, Jun 6
8:30 AM – 5:30 PM

This paper presents a case study of rainfall-runoff simulation in a data scarce watershed. In this study, HEC-HMS model simulated the 2010 extreme rainfall response of Upper Indus Basin (Tarbela Basin). This basin gets inflows from rainwater, snow/glacier melt, and base flows. Weather and flow records required for modeling purposes were limited and a greater topographic variation in the area did not allow using data from adjacent watersheds. The model capabilities for glaciated and rain-fed areas were used with some reasonable assumptions to fill data gaps. This research also utilized predicted future weather conditions derived from a global climate model to estimate anticipated future river flows. The information, along with Tarbela reservoir’s predicted reduced capacity in future (with sedimentation provision) can be helpful in long-term water resources planning and management. Simulated hydrographs from HEC-HMS were validated from observed flows with justifications of unmatched values. Modeled flows were compared at two different locations; Partab Bridge (draining upper glaciated part) and Tarbela Dam (basin outlet). The model results were not very accurate at Partab Bridge with respect to the observed flows. However, the model performed satisfactorily in the storm event of July 2010 at Tarbela outlet. The model efficiency was rather low in the glacier-covered area. For future scenario at the downstream Partab Bridge, the results indicated an increase in inflows at Tarbela in July 2050. The results of this study for future scenario are very alarming and need to be investigated more to reduce flood-related risks in the basin.

Zeenat Yasmeen

Graduate Student
Institute of Space Agency, Pakistan
Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan

Arjumand Z. Zaidi

Senior Research Fellow
US Pakistan Center for Advance Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan
Karachi

I did my PhD from George Mason University Virginia USA in Environmental Engineering. My professional experience is in the field of environmental evaluation and decision making. My research interests include optimization and modeling of water resources, environmental, and disaster management systems. Most of my research work deals in environmental decision making with the help of various numerical techniques and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) using satellite data. Currently, I am teaching in the US Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Pakistan as Senior Research Fellow.