Storm Surge and Tide

Oral

1671 - Probabilistic Evaluation Of Storm Surges In Suruga Bay Employing Stochastic Typhoon Model

Presenting Author(s)

• 

  Tomohiro Yasuda, PhD

  Associate Professor
  Kansai University

Additional Author #1(s)

• KI

  Katsuhito Iwahara

Additional Author #2(s)

• SH

  Shota Hirai

  student
  Kansai University Graduate School

Estimation of tsunami or storm surge height is usually based on the historical maximum record or an assumed maximum value. This study proposes probabilistic evaluation procedure of storm surges employing stochastic typhoon model and applies to Suruga Bay, Japan. Typhoon tracks passed the target area are extracted from synthetic typhoon track data set for 5000 years generated by the stochastic tropical cyclone model. Occurrence probabilities of storm surge height are estimated along the coast in Suruga Bay. The estimated hazard curves of storm surge can estimate the return period of the design storm surge in each regional coast.