Coastal Morphological Modeling
This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantify uncertainty and risk of shoreline changes (erosion and accretion) by using Monte Carlo simulations. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade is used to simulate shoreline changes driven by longshore and cross-shore sediment transport. Offshore waves are generated by Rayleigh and Weibull distribution which are developed to capture stochastic features of wave heights under both fair and extreme weather conditions. Probabilities of annual maximum shoreline changes are estimated in terms of maximum likelihood analysis. The developed model and probabilistic results are useful for assessing reliability and uncertainty of shoreline changes in natural coasts.