Category: Social and Community Context

24 - Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias in the United States (2015–2060) in adults aged ≥ 65 years

Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) primarily affects people aged ≥ 65 years, but race and ethnicity are also important risk factors. This study addresses a significant gap in the current literature by estimating the number of people with ADRD in the population by age, sex, and race/ethnicity for 2015 to 2060. The estimates were created by applying subgroup specific prevalence of ADRD among Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries aged ≥ 65 years in 2014 to subgroup specific population projection data from the US Census Bureau for 2015 to 2060. The burden of ADRD in 2015 is estimated to be 5.0 million adults aged ≥ 65 years or 1.6% of the US population. This burden will double to 3.3% by 2060 when 13.9 million Americans are projected to have the disease. 3.7 million non-Hispanic whites had ADRD in 2015 which will increase to 7.1 million by 2060. Cases among blacks will increase from 573 thousand to 2.2 million. Cases among Asian and Pacific Islanders will increase from 161 thousand to 1.0 million. Cases among Hispanics will increase from 430 thousand to 3.2 million. Cases among American Indian and Alaska natives will increase from 27 thousand to 156 thousand. These estimates can be used to assess ADRD in the population at risk which is crucial for public health planning related to caring for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers.


The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official positions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.


Kevin Matthews

Centers for Disease Control - Division of Population Health
Atlanta, Georgia

Kevin Matthews, is a Geographer for the Centers for Disease Control - Division of Population Health. He has over 21 years of professional experience using geographic information systems in both government and academic settings. The last eight years of his career have focused on applying spatial demography to address public health issues. His research interests include studying geographic patterns of access and utilization of healthcare and spatiotemporal analysis of cancer and other chronic diseases.

Wei Xu

PhD Candidate
University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee

Mr. Xu is a PhD candidate in the Department of Geography at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He PhD thesis is titled Spatial variation in dementia mortality in the United States.

Anne Gaglioti

Assistant Professor; Director of Southeast Regional Clinicians Network; Senior Research Scientist
National Center for Primary Care, Morehouse School of Medicine

Dr. Gaglioti's research interests include primary care health services research, care of underserved, disparate, and marginalized populations, and practice-based research networks. Dr. Gaglioti also serves as the research director for the National Center for Primary Care (NCPC) which is the nation’s first congressionally sanctioned center to develop programs that strengthen the primary care system for health equity and sustainability.

James Holt

Geographer/Analytic Methods Team Leader
Centers for Disease Control - Division of Population Health

Dr. James Holt is the Team Leader for Analytic Methods, in the CDC National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. Jim has been with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta since 1992. He earned his Ph.D. in Geography from the University of Georgia in 2003. His research focuses on the application of geospatial analysis methods for chronic disease surveillance and epidemiology. He is the CDC Co-PI for the 500 Cities project.

Dominic Mack

Associate Professor; Director
Department of Family Medicine; National Center for Primary Care; Morehouse School of Medicine
Atlanta, Georgia

Dr. Mack is the director of the National Center for Primary Care (NCPC) at the Morehouse School of Medicine. The NCPC is the nation’s first congressionally sanctioned center to develop programs that strengthen the primary care system for health equity and sustainability.

Janet Croft

Chief of Epidemiology and Surveillance Branch
Centers for Disease Control - Division of Population Health

Janet B. Croft, PhD joined the Cardiovascular Health Studies Branch at CDC in August 1991. She holds a bachelor’s degree in anthropology from the University of Southern Mississippi, MPH in maternal and child health from Tulane University, and PhD in epidemiology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She is currently chief of the Epidemiology and Surveillance Branch in NCCDPHP/DPH since 2007. She served as the first branch chief for the Epidemiology and Surveillance Branch in NCCDPHP/DHDSP and has over 10 years experience in various management roles in NCCDPHP. She is a recipient of CDC’s 2008 Charles C. Shepard Award in Assessment and Epidemiology and a 2003 HHS Group Honor Award for facilitating and coordinating branch activities in the Cardiovascular Health Branch that reflected the workload of a division-level management team.
Her first epidemiologic work experience included coordinating and conducting the Bogalusa Heart Study, a major cross-sectional and longitudinal community study of pediatric cohorts from birth through young adulthood, at Louisiana State University Medical Center. Dr. Croft’s career over the past 25 years at CDC has focused on identifying gaps in the epidemiologic assessment of heart failure, stroke, mental health, sleep, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and then developing new surveillance systems or improving existing systems to fill those gaps. She is also committed to improving the epidemiologic and surveillance capacity of state health departments. In her first management role as a cardiovascular disease epidemiologist at CDC, she was responsible for initiating and developing the State Cardiovascular Health Program, the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Registry, and the State Cardiovascular Health Examination Survey. In her current role since 2007, Dr. Croft provides leadership and oversight to CDC’s excessive alcohol prevention program, spatial analysis activities, the state chronic disease epidemiologist assignee program, and ongoing efforts related to improving the surveillance of sleep health, interstitial cystitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Her work is reflected in over 300 publications and CDC reports.

Lisa C. McGuire

Lead, Alzheimer's Disease + Healthy Aging Program
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Chamblee, Georgia

Dr. Lisa McGuire is the Lead of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Alzheimer’s Disease and Healthy Aging Program, which houses the congressionally-appropriated Healthy Brain Initiative. Dr. McGuire earned a PhD in Lifespan Developmental Psychology from Bowling Green State University and completed a National Institute of Mental Health Postdoctoral Fellowship in the Gerontology Center at The Pennsylvania State University, where she worked on the Seattle Longitudinal Study. She joined CDC in 2004 and has published over 75 articles and book chapters on aspects of chronic health conditions, obesity, cognition and brain injury, disability, caregiving, and aging. Dr. McGuire is a member of the National Alzheimer’s Project Act Federal Advisory Council, Board of Directors for the National Alliance for Caregiving, the Editorial Board of The Gerontologist, and Fellows of Division 20 of the American Psychological Association and the Gerontological Society of America.