China and Inner Asia

Organized Panel Session

2 - China Factor in Post-crisis Mercosur Trade Integration and Manufacturing Competitiveness (2009-2014)

Friday, July 6
12:10 PM - 1:40 PM
Location: Chinar, First Floor

Considering the short-term and long-term global financial crisis effects on industrial and trade policies implemented in China, Argentina, and Brazil, this article empirically analyzes China’s impact on trade integration and manufacturing competitiveness between Argentina and Brazil during the post-crisis period. Under a trilateral trade framework, we conduct both standards and modified Constant Market Share analyses, using trade data disaggregated at HS 6-digit level covering the period 2009-2014 provided by BACI database. The quantitative estimation of relative gains and losses of Argentina and Brazil facing China’s evolving import demand and export supply provides evidence for three main findings. In the first place, the persistence of China’s asymmetric trade pattern with Argentina and Brazil, but a declining China’s weight in explaining the decreasing bilateral trade intensity between Argentina and Brazil; in the second place, the divergent export performance between Argentina and Brazil to China, mainly attributed to the competitiveness shift in the soybean sector; and finally the enlargement of competitiveness gap between Mercosur countries and China in the upstream of manufacturing supply chain.

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