Surface Water Hydrology

Poster Abstract

Construction and Application of Flood Forecasting Scheme in Lijiang River Basin Based on Topmodel and Xin'anjiang Model

Wednesday, January 4
10:00 AM - 5:00 PM
Location: ChuLv Hall

This paper proposes a three sources of Xin'an River Model and a TOPMODEL for flood forecasting in Guijiang River basin upstream according to the Guijiang River basin upstream of the hydrological data, topography and climate characteristics. Based on the modified digital elevation model (DEM) by the use of AGREE method of ArcGIS, the Guijiang River basin upstream is divided to many sub basins and topographic index and flow line are extracted. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the three water source Xin'an River model and the TOPMODEL is carried out by using GLUE method, the SCE-UA method is used to optimize the parameters of the three water source Xin'an River model and the TOPMODEL so as to determine the hydrological model in the basin.
27 floods happened during 2008~2013 year 8 floods occurred during 2014~2015 year are used to calibrate and validate the proposed model, respectively. The results show that Xin’anjiang model in the rate of regular analog qualified rate is 85.2%, the average coefficient of determination is 0.850 , verify qualified rate is 87.5%, reaching the forecast accuracy of series A, average deterministic coefficient of 0.87, reaching the forecast accuracy of series B; rate regular analog qualified rate , average deterministic coefficient and verification qualified rate of the TOPMODEL are 86.3%, 0.814 and 80%, respectively, reaching the forecast accuracy of series B; average deterministic coefficient is 0.825, reaching the forecast accuracy of series B. Through the comparison of simulation results, it shows that the three water source Xin'an River model is more suitable for the upper reaches of the Guijiang River, which can provide scientific information for flood forecasting in the upper reaches of the Guijiang River.

Lihua Chen

Guangxi University,College of Civil Engineering An

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Fangfang Deng

GuangXi University

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Construction and Application of Flood Forecasting Scheme in Lijiang River Basin Based on Topmodel and Xin'anjiang Model



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