Cartography in Early Warning and Crisis Management

Sensor data for early warning and disaster risk reduction and management - I

3604.3 - Probabilistic determination of a flood area

Monday, July 3
3:30 PM - 3:50 PM
Location: Virginia B

Numerical results in topographical survey are usually expressed as surfaces, heights, volumes, distances, etc., all considered as deterministic values. Although data that allow such calculations are obviously affected by an error, the results do not adequately consider it. For example errors in elevation having normal distribution, does not necessarily imply that the error distribution in the volume is also normal. The relationship is even more complex in other situations. An example of this is the curve indicating the maximum flood line of a watercourse, for which a probability distribution for the error in planimetry can not be easily established. It seems reasonable that there is a direct relationship between the error level of the height data error and the error level of the level curve. Once you specify the requirements for the latter how to define the permissible value of the former? How you can justify it?. In this paper, the flood level of the banks of a watercourse which is between the departments of Montevideo and Canelones, Uruguay, in order to define areas of iso-probability of flooding is studied. All the uncertainty is assumed to be related to the error level of the DEM, ignoring the effect of other parameters like those of the hydraulic problem. The procedure has practical interest because it lets you specify the vertical positional accuracy required to the DEM in order to achieve an acceptable to the uncertainty of the location of the flood zone limit.

Rodolfo Méndez

Ingeniero Agrimensor
Instituto de Agrimensura - Facultad de Ingeniería - UDELAR

Rodolfo Mendez Baillo is Engineer Surveyor since 1999 by the Faculty of Engineering of the University of the Republic. He also holds a degree as Engineer in Topography in Spain.
He worked in different areas of surveying, especially cartography, geographic information quality. He worked 20 years in the Geographic Military Service as Army Lieutenant developing geodetic tasks in Uruguayan territory and the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica.
He was recruited as a volunteer by NASA and METI for vertical accuracy assessment of ASTER GDEM
He currently works for the Faculty of Engineering, carrying out tasks of teaching and research.


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3604.3 - Probabilistic determination of a flood area

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