Cartography in Early Warning and Crisis Management

Sensor data for early warning and disaster risk reduction and management - II

3704.4 - Temporal Changes of Community Resilience to Drought Hazard in South-Central United States

Monday, July 3
5:10 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: Virginia B

Drought is a natural hazard in the South-Central United States and its effects are becoming acuter in the result of the climate change. Drought disturbs water systems and harms agricultural production, and its effects accrue with time. Therefore, assessment of the temporal changes of community resilience to drought is important.
In this study, 503 counties of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas were assessed according to the Resilience Inference Model (RIM) for the time periods of 1991-2000 and 2001-2010.
In the RIM model (Lam et al. 2015; Cai et al. 2016), community resilience is defined by three key elements: exposure, damage, and recovery. In this study, exposure is defined by the duration of the hazard, damage is an economic loss, and recovery is indicated by population return following the hazard event. Based on the relationships of exposure, damage, and recovery identified by the k-means clustering, each county is assigned with one of the four possible resilience levels — susceptible, recovering, resistant, or usurper. Then, through discriminant analysis, the assigned resilience level is validated using a set of socioeconomic and environmental variables, and the posterior classification, as well as classification accuracy, is estimated.
Regression analysis of the selected variables was performed to define a relationship between the socio-economic indicators and resilience levels for the both time periods, and then a temporal change of those relationships was analyzed. Results show that in the both decades, percent of employment in agriculture accounts negatively to the resilience. This suggests higher damage and lower resilience in agricultural counties.
As a preliminary analysis of the spatial distribution of the key elements used in the RIM resilience measurement, “hotspot” maps were created for the exposure, damage, and recovery variables for 1991–2000 and 2001-2010, using the 95% confidence level in the “Hot Spot Analysis” tool in ArcGIS® software. The results show that second decade is characterized by higher exposure (mean duration of drought), lower average drought damage per capita and lower mean population growth in the region (lower recovery).
Utilization of real-world spatial data for empirical validation and inclusion of inferential ability in resilience measurement, such as the RIM model, is a new approach in the area of community resilience assessment. Moreover, assessment of the temporal change in the relationship of socioeconomic variables to drought resilience is innovative and the results should provide useful insights into the response of social systems facing the pressure of climate change.

Volodymyr Mihunov

Phd Student, Graduate Assistant
LSU, Department of Environmental Sciences

I’m a Ph.D. student at the Department of Environmental Science, LSU. My primary work as a research assistant and my prospective dissertation research is on assessing and understanding community resilience to drought hazard. My undergraduate and Master’s degree is in Environmental Protection from the Prydniprovsk Academy of Engineering and Architecture, Ukraine. My undergraduate research was a survey on attitudes towards GMO labeling in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine. My master’s thesis was on the hazardous industrial waste management system.

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Jonathan Li

Professor
University of Waterloo

Jonathan Li is a full professor with the Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, He received the PhD degree in remote sensing and geoinformatics from the University of Cape Town, South Africa in 2000. His research interests include information extraction from earth observation imagery and mobile laser scanning data. He is chair of the ICA Commission on SEnsor-driven Mapping (2015-2019). He is Associate Editor of IEEE-TITS, IEEE-JSTARS, and Sensors.

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